Last updated on February 13th, 2025 at 09:34 am
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Harris just had their first debate last Tuesday. Before the debate, offshore sportsbooks had Presidential election betting odds with Trump as the favorite to win the Presidential elections. Now that the debate is over, gamblers believe that Harris is the new favorite to win the U.S. Presidential election. While this is exciting to bettors, Legal Betting on the US Election remains illegal. However, that could soon change.
The 1992 PASPA Act was repealed in 2018 allowing states to make their own decision to legalize sports betting. However, it did not include the ability to bet on U.S. local or national elections. Therefore, gamblers who want to place a bet on the US Elections had to use offshore sportsbooks.
Now, things could change due to a decision by a federal judge in Washington D.C.. This is because she struck down a decision by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) against Kalshi. Last year, the CFTC forbade Kalshi from offering contracts betting on which political party would control each house of Congress. However, Kalshi did not take it lying down and took the CFTC to court over the matter.
How the Decision by Judge Cobbe Effects Legal Betting on US Elections?
The decision was made last Friday by District Court Judge Jia Cobbe, who chose to rule in favor of Kalshi. At the time of the hearing, she did not give any reasoning for her decision. Instead, she said a planned hearing would take place Thursday where the court would give their reasoning for the decision.
As to Kalshi, they are happy with the decision and aid “the commission lost fair and square, on the law.” Furthermore, they wrote, “As the election nears, Kalshi and the public deserve access to the contracts (betting contracts).”
As of now, no jurisdiction in the US allows wagering on elections. In fact, and numerous states have explicitly made it illegal. However, people can easily bet on the elections with offshore sportsbook, where betting on elections is prevalent throughout Europe. Furthermore, it is easy to open a sportsbook with a pay per head outside of the U.S. and take such wagers.
Despite the win, Kalshi is still not able to list election wagers and accept bets on it. This is because judge Cobbe did consent to postpone the proceedings until at least Thursday. Therefore, they will have to wait until the judge gives out the court’s reasoning. Afterwards, unless something else happens, they will be able to list and accept funds from customers regarding its Congressional markets.
It remains uncertain whether Kalshi or other sportsbooks will provide wagers on additional elections, such as the presidential race.
Current Betting Odds on the U.S. Presidential Elections
As of 9/12/2024 7:31 AM here are the current betting line on the U.S. Presidential elections.
| Candidates | 9/11/20242 | 9/12/2024 |
| Donald Trump | -115 | +110 |
| Kamala Harris | +110 | -103 |
What was the Court Case about – Kashi vs CFTC
In September of 2023, the CFTC made the decision that Kalshi it could not offer yes-no prediction bets on the elections. Specifically, which party would control the House of Representatives and the Senate. They said it was because constituted illegal gambling activity that is contrary to the public interest.
Furthermore, they said such bets “could potentially be used in ways that would have an adverse effect on the integrity of elections.” Or at least on the “perception of integrity of the elections by creating monetary incentives to vote for particular candidates.
Thus, Kalshi chose to take the CFTC to court to overturn their decision.
CFTC will Probably Appeal the Decision
Of course, its not over until the fat lady signs and the CFTC will probably appeal the decision. At the moment, they have filed an “emergency motion” seeking a temporary stay of the court ruling.
The reason for the Emergency Motion refers to “serious legal questions at stake.” Additionally, the CFTC said that it requires the court’s reasoning to appropriately file a motion for a stay pending appeal.
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